Department of Peace and Conflict Research

Comparison with other sources of forecasts

We will compare our forecasts with a set of competing forecasting exercises in order to evaluate the performance of the system. Comparisons will be made against the Global Conflict Risk Index, Political Risk Services, the Good Judgment Project (to the extent metrics are comparable), and others. We will also compare the system’s predictions with those of traditional country experts by recruiting 75 experts on African countries at an hourly basis. They will be asked every three months over a two-year period by means of a computerized questionnaire how they assess the strength and the goals of the key actors in a particular conflict zone and how large they consider the risk that different violent instruments will be used.