Comparison with other sources of forecasts

We will compare our forecasts with a set of competing forecasting exercises in order to evaluate the performance of the system. Comparisons will be made against the Global Conflict Risk Index, Political Risk Services, the Good Judgment Project (to the extent metrics are comparable), and others. We will also compare the system’s predictions with those of traditional country experts by recruiting 75 experts on African countries at an hourly basis. They will be asked every three months over a two-year period by means of a computerized questionnaire how they assess the strength and the goals of the key actors in a particular conflict zone and how large they consider the risk that different violent instruments will be used. 

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Kick-off meeting for the ViEWS project

The ViEWS project started up with a kick-off meeting on 17–18 January. The project, directed by Håvard Hegre and involving Hanne FjeldeLisa HultmanDesiree Nilsson, as well as an international team of researchers, will develop, test, and iteratively improve a pilot Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS). It will provide early warnings for four forms of political violence: armed conflict involving states and rebel groups, armed conflict between non-state actors, violence against civilians, and forced population displacement, and apply these to specific actors, sub-national geographical units, and countries. The system will leverage the data resources of the UCDP and other data sources developed by the Department and the project’s international partners.

The project has five years of funding from the European Research Council and involves collaboration with the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

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