Methodology

ViEWS applies a "divide and conquer' strategy to the forecasting problem. We analyze separately the three outcomes (state-based conflict, non-state conflict, one-sided violence). We think of these outcomes at three levels of analysis that we work to inform each other. At each of these levels of analysis, we specify a number of models to reflect various conflict predictors and modeling strategies. We combine these modeling strategies in model ensembles. ViEWS continuously evaluates the system and gradually improves it.

The data going into ViEWS and our comprehensive strategy to handle missingness is summarized in the Data section