Geographical level

The maps above present forecasts at fine-grained sub-national geographical locations for each of the three outcomes, focusing primarily on where events happen. We refer to this level as pgm.

The densest risk clusters at pgm level for state-based conflict continue to be in northeastern Nigeria, the Anglophone region of Cameroon, the North and South Kivu provinces in DR Congo, Somalia (southern states in particular), Egypt's Sinai, and the northeastern Cabo Delgado Province of Mozambique where an Islamist insurgency emerged at the end of 2017. The risk of violence in Mali and Burkina Faso also remains high but is more spread out geographically. Most of these regions have been facing violence for years, reflecting that countries' recent conflict history is the strongest predictor of future violence.

Compared to last month, we find the strongest increases in the risk of state-based violence in the northeast of Nigeria despite ramped up security operations in the region. The risk of state-based violence shows a relatively strong increase in northern Burkina Faso where jihadists have stepped up their attacks in recent months. Relevant is also Libya, where in September scores were killed in continued fighting between the Government of Libya and Forces of the House of Representatives (LNA) in Tripoli. Our predictions for Egypt show a relevant increase of risk around Cairo, where in September Egyptian security forces eliminated nine suspected militants. This is in addition to mass demonstrations calling for President Sisi's resignation in Cairo in September.

The forecasts for non-state conflict and one-sided violence depend on the same factors although with somewhat different implications. The strongest non-state clusters are found in Mali, Southern Nigeria, Eastern DR Congo, and Somalia. For one-sided violence, we find strong and persistent clusters in Mali and Burkina Faso, northeastern Nigeria as well as Lagos and Delta regions, the eastern DR Congo, around Mogadishu in Somalia, and Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique.

Compared to last month, Nigeria shows a relatively uniform increased risk of non-state violence in the country's south in particular. An important contributor to this risk is the violence between cult gangs in the country's South, particularly in the Lagos and Rivers states. Clashes between the Black Axe and Eyie cults in Lagos for instance led to at least nine deaths during the month of September, while between 20 and 27 September alone, clashes between unknown cults in Rivers State led to 16 deaths. Additionally, ethnic violence between Tiv and Jukun people in Taraba State led to at least 37 deaths in the first week of September. With regard to the risk of one-sided violence, we find a relevant increase in Northern Burkina Faso, while the risk has slightly decreased in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in DR Congo this month.

For more information see the monthly forecasts report for November 2019

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Please cite: Hegre, Håvard, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Naima Mouhleb, Sayeed Auwn Muhammad, Desiree Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Nina von Uexkull, Jonas Vestby (2019) ‘ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system’, Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), pp. 155–174. doi: 10.1177/0022343319823860.